But the one thing we have learned for sure from SARS-CoV-2 is that new viruses can surprise us. In all, it seems like a good idea to be prepared for more COVID-19 cases during the colder months. This led to a strict lockdown, although it was only fully eased in October. However, in Melbourne, there was a large outbreak in July coinciding with a spell of cold weather. It might have been able to do that whatever the weather.Įarly data from Australia suggested that low humidity would be a factor to look out for and was a better guide to risk of increases in COVID-19 than temperature. New Zealand seems to have kept the spread of SARS-CoV-2 at bay due to geography, the quality of the healthcare system and the effectiveness of the public health response.
But it does seem like the colder weather during July and August was probably not the main factor in deciding their infection rates. These two countries are very different in many respects, so it’s not that useful to directly compare them.
South Africa has reported over 700,000 cases and experienced a large peak in July, but New Zealand controlled the infection very well and had fewer than 2,000 cases of COVID-19. We can also look at what happened in the southern hemisphere during winter there. Young camels are a major source of infection and new animals are born during March. Humans can acquire Mers from each other or from camels. However, this may be less to do with the weather and more related to camel biology. Regular outbreaks of Mers also happen in the spring (March to May) in the Middle East. (There was no way of confirming this through follow-up studies since the virus later died out.) A study tracking the weather during the 2003 Sars epidemic in China suggested that the peak of the infections occurred during spring-like weather conditions. The lessons from the other coronaviruses that have appeared during the 21st century (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV) also tell a slightly different story. So it’s reasonable to think that the same may be true for the COVID-19 coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, which has a similar size and structure.įlu viruses are transmitted more easily in cold, dry air. Flu viruses survive and are transmitted more easily in cold, dry air. However, studies have shown that the annual increase in colds and flu particularly coincides with when the temperature outside and relative humidity indoors are lower. Another theory is that people produce less vitamin D when there is less sunlight and so have weaker immune systems. You are more likely to choose the option of travelling on a crowded bus or train than walking or cycling to work when the weather is cold and wet. It’s often attributed to the fact that people spend more time indoors when it’s colder, coughing, sneezing and breathing on each other. We know that more people get colds and flu in the winter (the colds can be caused by types of coronavirus), but there are several potential reasons for this. The re-opening of schools and universities led to greater mixing of individuals from different households, but could the fall in outside temperatures also be playing a part?
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Why is the reported number of COVID-19 cases rising across Europe now? Many countries ended their full lockdowns at the start of the summer, but it wasn’t until the autumn that most places began to see a significant increase in the spread of the virus again.
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